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Libya: Making a Friend out of the Enemy of our Enemy

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*Alex Braha is a Senior Associate at Andreae & Associates in Washington, DC, where she focuses on political and security issues in Africa and the Middle East. She received her M.A. in International Security from the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver.

The beginning of this month saw glimmers of hope quickly turn back to stalemate with the UN-led negotiations to solve the crisis in Libya. July began with Abdullah al-Thinni, the prime minister for the internationally recognized government currently in power in Tobruk, proclaiming his hopes that a peace deal could be signed at the latest round of talks. This was followed a few days later by the refusal of the rival government in Tripoli to show at the peace talks, expressing their rejection of the UN proposal and suggested amendments from the Tobruk government. The latest iteration of a peace plan is the fourth draft undertaken by UN envoy Bernadino Leon, and the closest he has been to consensus. But with the last minute refusal by the Tripoli government, how many more chances remain to get a deal?

There is a lot at stake for an agreement. There has been a surge of Islamic State-linked terrorist incidents in the region, including most recently the attack on 40 tourists at a Tunisian beach resort. Libya has become a safe haven for the group, allowing the Islamic State to take advantage of the government instability to increase its geographic footprint (they now control the coastal town of Sirte). There is also a very public refugee crisis, with thousands of people transiting through Libya and from her shores in rickety boats across the Mediterranean. Economic concerns are also quickly mounting. Neither side wields enough political power to overtake the other, and the real players, the military forces of General Haftar behind the House and the various militias and brigades that make up Libya Dawn for the General National Congress, are focused on a military solution.

This is not to say that Libya is quickly moving to ‘failed state’ status. As reported in The Daily Beast last month, there is a surprising amount of order and coordination on the ground. Trash is being picked up in Tripoli (something that did not consistently happen when Qaddhafi was in power) and nightly turf-battles between militias have been steadily decreasing. Libya also just lifted force majeure at the Ras Lanuf oil terminal, with crude oil exports hopefully restarting in the next couple of days.

The increasing presence of the Islamic State also provides a common ground for the two governments. Ambassador Christopher Hill, in a recent op-ed for the Denver Post, summed up the opportunity IS presents this way:

In the Middle East, the enemy of your enemy is most likely still your enemy. But, in confronting the Islamic State, the Middle East’s factions have a rare opportunity to alter the status quo. A common enemy is a common cause, which could become the cornerstone of a shared future. That is why this is one crisis the region cannot afford to waste.

Libya has an advantage in that your enemy against a common enemy might actually be family. The tribal and familial relationships that crisscross Libya run deeper than the political divisions, and have for centuries. Outside of Tripoli and Tobruk, it is the local militias and families calling the shots, and they are tired of the post-Qaddhafi turmoil. There is growing consensus among Libyan businessman and the middle class to work towards a Libya for all Libyans, where daily life can be a bit more normal.

Normal is a long way off, but there are tangible steps that can be taken now by the international community in parallel to the UN-led negotiations.  Food shortages and rising food prices have been reported by many humanitarian aid groups including the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent. The international community should work with the Central Bank to coordinate secure delivery of food and non-food items. The Bank has already shown that it can work with both governments and coordinate activities.

As previously argued in a New York Times op-ed, ultimately Europe and America will have to engage directly with the militias and familial/tribal leaders. That starts with quietly opening dialogues with pro-Western, anti-Islamist leaders. Just as NATO success in the overthrow of Qaddhafi hinged strongly on the intelligence coordination between local militias to guide airstrikes, political success will also hinge on coordination with local power players.

Finally, there must be recognition from the US that the future of Libya is important. The Libya discussions that dominate Washington today are focused on former Secretary of State Clinton and the State Department’s handling of Benghazi. The State Department’s Special Envoy for Libya is dual-hatted with responsibilities for MEK resettlement out of Iraq. While Mr. Winer is well respected in Washington and well qualified, his dual role sends mixed messages about the desire of the Administration to have a stable and functioning Libya. Surely the future of a country with the largest oil reserves in Africa and 300 miles away from Europe deserves a full time envoy. Engagement from the White House and Congress needs to go beyond the blame game on Benghazi and quietly supporting the UN negotiations. Libyans are looking for allies as they embark on unifying a country, better us than the Islamic State.


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